By tying to the dollar, a currency sinking like a stone, the renminbi has depreciated against all currencies on a trade-weighted basis, JPMorgan data show. A drastic shift is needed. That will mean exporting its inflation. It also means buying fewer treasuries, or even selling some, which would in turn counteract any efforts at “quantitative easing” – buying bonds to keep US yields low.
The dollar would probably tumble, and treasury yields rise. Other effects are less clear. The Australian dollar, long a proxy for Chinese growth, might suffer if China slows, as might other commodity-driven currencies but much depends on China’s own decisions.