On sex, lies and the pitfalls of overblown statistics – FT中文网

Always ask yourself the question “where does that data come from?”. “Long distance rail travel in Britain is expected to increase by 96 per cent by 2043.” Note how the passive voice “is expected” avoids personal responsibility for this statement. Who expects this? And what is the basis of their expectation? For all I know, we might be using flying platforms in 2043, or be stranded at home by oil shortages: where did the authors acquire their insight?

“On average, men think about sex every seven seconds.” How did the researchers find this out? Did they ask men how often they thought about sex, or when they last thought about sex (3½ seconds ago, on average)? Did they give their subjects a buzzer to press every time they thought about sex? How did they confirm the validity of the responses? Is it possible that someone just made this statement up, and it has been repeated without attribution ever since? Many of the numbers I hear at business conferences have that provenance.

Beware explanations that are tautological: “gross domestic product is a measure of the income of the nation”, “movements of the consumer prices index reflect changes in the cost of a basket of commodities compiled by the Office for National Statistics”. Always probe descriptions – “GDP is not a measure of output, or of welfare” – that define what a statistic is not, rather than what it is. “These figures are not forecasts, and should not be relied on by prospective investors.” If they are not forecasts, then what are they, and if they are not to be relied on by prospective investors what purpose was intended in distributing the information to them?

Be careful of data defined by reference to other documents which you are expected not to have read. “These accounts have been compiled in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles”, or “these estimates are prepared in line with guidance given by HM Treasury and the Department of Transport”. Such statements are intended to give a false impression of authoritative endorsement. A data set compiled by a national statistics organisation or a respected international institution such as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development or Eurostat will have been compiled conscientiously.

When the data seem to point to an unexpected finding, always consider the possibility that the problem is a feature of the data, rather than a feature of the world. I recently saw a study of comparative productivity in financial services in which Italy came top and Britain and the US bottom. You might have thought alarm bells would ring, but no: the authors went on to comment that this divergence was serious because of the size of the financial services sectors of Britain and the US. A little thought might have directed the researchers’ attention to questions such as “what is meant by output of financial services?”.

via On sex, lies and the pitfalls of overblown statistics – FT中文网.

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